Soybeans and the June 30 USDA Reports (Jun 29, 2017)

The USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report, with estimates of crop inventories as of June 1, and the annual Acreage report on June 30. For soybeans, the stocks estimate is typically overshadowed by the estimate of planted acreage. The June 1 soybean stocks estimate this year may not provide much new information but the implications for soybean prices contained in the Acreage report could make for a long summer of depressed prices. 

Seed and residual use in the first half this year was estimated at 144.7 million bushels with a surprising 48.4 million-bushel use in the second quarter of the marketing year. If marketing year ending stocks remain at the current USDA projection of 450 million bushels, a June 1 stocks at the level point to a final quarter U.S. soybean consumption level of 510.5 million bushels. 

Information in the acreage report is expected to overwhelm the stocks report by increasing the production possibilities for the 2017-18 marketing year. Despite soybean planting being behind schedule in many areas of the U.S., it is too early to speculate on yield loss or increased prevent planting acreage for this year's crop.

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